In October of last year, Abkhaz leader Aslan Bzhania, who had returned from Moscow, quite literally stunned his compatriots by announcing that Russia was planning to deploy a permanent naval base in Ochamchira.

He stunned them because most Abkhazians did not quite understand how to react to this news — with joy or with caution. After all, in recent years Moscow’s “noble” intentions have repeatedly resulted in dire consequences for Abkhazia.

In an attempt to smooth out the surprise effect, de facto Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shamba immediately came to the president’s aid, stating that this agreement had not been reached today and had been discussed during previous meetings.

Indeed, discussions about a Russian base in Ochamchira began back in 2009. At that time, several Russian patrol boats with FSB radar vessels were even deployed there. However, all further actions were frozen until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As recently as August 2022, Russian Ambassador Mikhail Shurgalin claimed that there were no plans to create any new military base on Abkhaz territory. But who could have imagined then that the war in Ukraine, which failed to meet Kremlin expectations, would drag on, and that Russian warships would not only be sent “where they belong,” but would also be forced out of Sevastopol? Thus, it became urgently necessary to find an alternative airfield — that is, a port — and Abkhazia turned out to be a perfect fit, being not only a “strategic partner” but also possessing favorable geographic and climatic conditions for docking vessels. And although a basing point is not a full-fledged base but merely its small replica, Russian military experts believe that it would make it possible to remove part of the Black Sea Fleet ships from under Ukrainian missile strikes.

When Bzhania made his statement in October last year, the prospect of deploying a naval base did not seem imminent, given the technical characteristics of the rather shallow and small Ochamchira port. However, recently the same Shamba announced that the operation of a Russian naval basing point could begin as early as this year. Notably, according to BBC data, after the start of aggression against Ukraine, dredging and construction work was carried out in the Ochamchira port. At the same time, attempts to shelter from attack would prove futile if Ukraine uses long-range missiles.

Attitudes toward this issue within Abkhazia itself remain ambivalent. The de facto authorities support Moscow’s initiative (possibly against their own will), calling it a strengthening of national security. Some citizens also try to reassure themselves that the deployment of an additional base would, in case of emergency, protect Abkhazia from an attack by Georgia and allow monitoring NATO activities along the Black Sea coast. More rational observers believe that the base would bring no benefits to Abkhazia, while potentially increasing regional tensions.

For example, journalist Roin Agrba told the online publication Caucasian Knot that from a security standpoint the base has no advantages, since Georgia lacks the resources to initiate military action, while the downsides are obvious — Ukrainian drones could reach Ochamchira, and war could come to Abkhazia. And he is absolutely right! Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly stated that the Russian military fleet will be reached anywhere and everywhere. President Zelensky directly pointed to Abkhazia. Following him, Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Oleksii Neizhpapa also made it clear that Kyiv could strike Russian ships at the new naval base in Ochamchira as well.

In Sukhumi, there is a belief that Georgian authorities will not allow Ukrainians to take such a step. Indeed, the fate of compatriots living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is not indifferent to Tbilisi, and the Georgian government must do everything in its power to prevent escalation on its territory, even if it is occupied. However, this is hardly possible if Russian ships in Ochamchira are launching strikes on Ukraine, thereby forcing it to respond. In essence, Ukrainians would have full moral and legal justification for such actions. This is not about retaliatory strikes against Abkhazia, which they clearly do not want, but rather about being compelled to resort to such a scenario due to the presence of Russian warships there, which are actively involved in the war and pose a threat to Ukraine’s national security.

It is obvious that Russia is hardly guided by Abkhazia’s interests when deploying a new base in Ochamchira; it is concerned only with its own problems. Moreover, by solving these problems, Russia is exposing Abkhazia to the risk of being fully drawn into a war that is not its own.

Yet many Abkhazians still speak of possible “revanchist” aspirations from Tbilisi. However, both under Saakashvili and Ivanishvili, Georgian governments have repeatedly declared non-use of force as a means of restoring the country’s territorial integrity, and there is truly no desire in Tbilisi to wage war against Abkhazia or South Ossetia. First and foremost, because Abkhazia is part of Georgia, and the local population are its citizens, and going to war against one’s own citizens is absolutely unacceptable for official Tbilisi. Moreover, war initiated by Georgia would mean the end of everything — both the possibility of returning Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the very close prospect of joining the European Union, where the vast majority of Georgians see their future. On this issue, everyone is united — the government, the opposition, civil society, and ordinary citizens — that the use of force is not a way to resolve the conflict.

As for NATO, Russia somehow managed all these years without an Ochamchira base, even during periods when Georgia–NATO relations were rapidly deepening, unlike the current situation. Based on all this, it appears that the primary purpose of the fleet’s deployment is its use in the war against Ukraine, which poses serious consequences for Abkhazia.

So perhaps Abkhazians are expecting war from the wrong side, while their “strategic partner” is actually “helping” them in this regard? As George Sand once wrote, “Lord, protect me from those I trust”…

Gvantsa Pipia